P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (17509)	11/27/2002 8:45:08 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) of 30712

Eugene, I think the comparisons to 82 are specious at this point... You want to go long equities went interest rates at 20% ('82) because they (rates) have no place to go but down....where can interest rates go now? Hmm... U.S. stocks were underrepresented in portfolios in '82 (out of favor)...can we truly say stocks are out of favor now?....sure we are down from bubble levels, but by all accounts (stock recommendations on Wall Street, % owned by individuals) levels remain extraodinarily, historically very, very high.. In '82, we had just been thru 16 years of flat Dow performance....we haven't accomplished a time retrace anywhere close to 16 years...even just looking at the bull since '82, we have more time to correct.. There is more (but that's enough for now)-, IMO, one has to be very careful with neat package arguments- when conditions simply aren't (near) the same..

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