Update
… at www.technicalindicatorindex.com
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Today's Market Comments:
Good news for Gold bugs. Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a new Buy signal Thursday, July 29th, as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a new Buy, joining our HUI 30 day Stochastic Indicator. Our HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to Neutral from Sell. Gold had a strong day, up 36 points, with Silver following suit, up 0.90, and Mining stocks up a strong 6.69.
Stocks closed higher across the board Thursday, July 29th. Volume was moderate. The Industrials are rising in the final wave e-up (see page 36). Proportionality for the waves suggests the timing for the coming major top is now looking like a late August to October time period event in 2021. The Industrials are fighting strong resistance around 35,100. This wave e-up move is a five wave rally, and it looks like waves i-up and ii-down are complete, with iii-up underway now. Inside this third subwave appears to be a subwave 1-up that is complete, with corrective 2-down finishing. Once the Industrials can break out above resistance, above 35,100, they should be free to rise further and finish this Bull market from March 2020. See updated chart on page 36.
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are finishing the final leg of intermediate term Bearish Wedges, again, leading to a major top and coming significant decline. Small caps did not hit a new high last week, but are inside a sideways pattern that could / should lead to one final breakout higher over the next month or so, to a major top.
Trannies have quietly fallen 2000 points, 12 percent, since April 2021, and have formed a major Dow Theory non-confirmation with the Industrials. This is not good for the markets' future, and is something to expect at a major developing top.
Gold sits inside the handle of a major Bullish Cup and Handle pattern. Once it breaks out of this handle decline, a powerful rally will commence. See updated chart on page 51. Silver is finishing a sideways triangle pattern that should soon lead to a strong rising trend. It should track Gold. Mining stocks are bottoming, have a Bullish divergence between the HUI and our HUI 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, so also should soon track Gold higher. The Euro has been correlating closely with Gold, and looks ready to rise. Oil remains inside a long-term rising trend.
There were no changes to our key indicators from Wednesday's price action. The three-component Blue-Chip key trend-finder indicator remains Neutral. The NASDAQ 100 three-component NDX key short-term trend-finder indicator remains on a Neutral signal. The small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator is on a Buy signal.
This coming top will be serious, and will lead to a significant Bear market, with a stock market crash occurring at some point inside this next major decline. A series of unexpected bad news events will accompany this New Bear market.
The stock market price action may not include a crash for a few months as a series of waves one down and corrective two up of varying degrees of trend occur. But when the subsequent wave threes hit, many all at once, it will be ugly. The wave two bounces will give folks a chance to prepare, albeit at lower prices than the recent all-time highs.
The charts for all markets show that a massive stock market crash is on its way, starting over the next 12 months.However, we need to see a new Hindenburg Omen occur before the crash begins. New Lows are getting up there, and showing up often. In watching recent market action, one can almost smell a new Hindenburg Omen coming. New Lows above 40 is usually not a good sign, and we have seen five days above 40 the past few weeks, and three in a row through July 27th.
Patterns are the stock market speaking to us, letting us know where they are headed next. They are the accumulation of all knowledge on the planet from all sources, and the patterns identify the next major trends we can expect.
The S&P 500 has formed a growing and large Bearish divergence with its Demand Power measure, and also its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, suggesting a top is approaching. There is also a growing Bearish divergence between the Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500 that warns of developing trouble.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal July 16th. It rose 6 points Thursday (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 3. It would have to rise back above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal July 20th, 2021 and remain there Thursday, July 29th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Tuesday, July 20th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 23rd, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on July 19th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power rose 5 to 429 Thursday, while Supply Pressure fell 7 to 420, telling us Thursday's Blue Chip rise was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to a Neutral Signal July 26th, and remains there Thursday, July 29th, 2021.
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Gold should be headed sharply higher over the coming months and years. It could reach 3,000 as it rises, perhaps quite a bit higher than that over time, with corrective declines interspersed along the way.
Silver remains in a sideways triangle pattern, shown in charts on page 52. This decline seems to be what the pattern needs to complete, so if this is a predictive pattern at this time, then Silver should soon start a strong rally. No guarantees, patterns sometimes fail, but the pattern does look clearly defined with upper and lower boundary lines.
The HUI is seeing a sharp Bullish Divergence between prices and its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, suggesting that Mining stocks, and likely Metals, are soon going to head higher, starting a new rising trend. That trend may be starting now.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Buy signal July 29th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal July 27th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Buy on July 29th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Neutral signal July 29th. On Thursday, July 29th, Demand Power rose 10 to 380 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 374, telling us Thursday's HUI rise was strong.
DJIA/SPY PPI Up 2 to + 33.55, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 64.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 68.89 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 63.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 73.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 50.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 6 to Positive + 3, On a Sell
Demand Power Up 5 to 429, Supply Pressure Fell 7 to 420 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator rose to positive + 35.46
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1414.63
Plunge Protection Team Indicator - 1.0, an "OFF" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator +111.2 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 207 New Lows 24
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Neutral signal Wednesday, July 21st, 2021, and remain there July 29th, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 20th, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy on July 21st, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 21st, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Buy signalWednesday, July 21st and remains there July 29th. On Thursday, July 29th, Demand Power Rose 1 to 454, while Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 436, telling us Thursday's rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 28th, 2021, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 12.4 on Thursday, July 29th.
NDX PPI Up 1 to 319.71, On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.29 Slow 57.22 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 65.82 Slow 61.27 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 12.4 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 1 to 454, Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 436 Buy
RUT PPI Up 1 to 199.50, on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 120.1, On a Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). |
