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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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From: isopatch

2/10/2016 11:52:54 AM

1 Recommendation

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John Pitera

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A look at graphed U.S. energy demand stats by economic segment.

Good website for those who like to emphasize quantitative evidence in their macro fundamental analysis.

No time to respond to replies.

All the best to everyone,

Isopatch

<Concept: personal standard of living is derived (largely) from the number of energy slaves you have working for you.

Likewise, increasing or decreasing activity can be tracked by energy (slave) consumption in each sector.

The following series are produced monthly by EIA that totals the energy consumption in the US in 4 sectors (Industry, Transport, Commercial, Residential) from all energy sources. They are a very seasonal noisy series, so we use a 12-point moving average to smooth things out. We then divide this by population to arrive at - energy slaves per person per year for each sector in BTU. The MA makes it lag a bit, but the series are so noisy you would likely not see anything interesting if you didn't have some sort of adjustment.

Industrial: 40% (per capita) drop since 1975 points at long-term deindustrializationResidential: 12% (per capita) drop since 2008 points at real losses in standard of livingTransport: 14% (per capita) drop since 2008 - more std of living losses

Over a longer time period an argument might be made for decreasing energy use based on increased efficiency. Over shorter timeframes - not so much. And if you look at all the sectors, things are all still trending down except residential.

Coal = 25 MBTU/ton

Diesel = 5.8 MBTU/barrel

Electricity = 3.4 MBTU/MWhr

For 300 MBTU per capita per year:

12 tons Coal, or

51 barrels diesel, or

88 MWHrs electricity