Egypt: The son also seeks a rise--from the Core
By Thomas P.M. Barnett on News Analysis
ARTICLE: "Mubarak's Son Proposes Nuclear Program: Call for Reactors Suggests a Political Succession in the Works," by Michael Slackman and Mona El-Naggar, New York Times, 20 September 2006, p. A14.
Egypt watches Iran gets respect and attention pronto by pursuing nuclear energy--just like the big boys do.
And Gamal, the son and heir apparent to Hosni, decides he wants some of that respect--and attention.
So Gamal says Egypt needs nuclear power.
Does Egypt need it? Of course they do. Anybody can use nuclear power.
But Egypt, being Gap like Iran, isn't trusted with adult technology, and so the lecturing and hectoring will begin.
Will it work?
Not really. It plays too well to the political elite Gamal is seeking to win over ("trust me!").
Egypt moving in the wrong direction?
Depends on how you define development.
If rushing toward democracy when there's no middle class to speak of and political parties are nascent, then no. But if you believe in creating economic connectivity leading to access to foreign capital, then Gamal and his reformist PM are moving in the right direction.
Gamal's choice to announce for nukes is a savvy one. Egypt has no nukes now, but has conducted research for decades, just never choosing to pursue anything serious.
Naturally, the nuke counter-proliferation crowd will get all jacked, claiming this is the natural outcome of letting Iran move along in its program, but this rhetorical pissing-in-the-wind will simply join the diplomatic pissing-in-the-wind effort to try and firewall technology off from Gap actors we either don't trust for their motives (Iran) or for their competency (Egypt).
But the counter-proliferation mindset from the Cold War is fixed in eternity, and it merges so nicely with the generalized fear of nuclear power in general.
But make no mistake: nuclear power will spread throughout the Gap. We will huff and puff in the Core, but the Gap will get its power, and if we won't make it happen, New Core powers like Russia, India and China will.
So the counter-nuke efforts must inevitably shift from denial to transparency. The technology is there to do this, now we wait for the political will to marry up with what must be a generational shift from the taboo-based denial strategies of the Cold War.
Upshot? Gamal impresses somewhat, but don't they all--the Western educated sons of Middle East dictators?
But where is the great follow-through with this crop?
It's at least good to see Gamal with a sense of urgency. Shows he has a chance in the race against the Muslim Brotherhood.
But I wouldn't place any bets just yet. |
