John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: 3bar who wrote (18026)	3/22/2016 2:01:14 PM
From: John Pitera	4 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar benwood dealmakr roguedolphin Read Replies (2) of 33421

No worries and the thing is that AAPL is the rare tech company that has had second and third acts. DEC Digital Equipment was the premier maker of mini computers in the late 1980's had a legendary massively expensive end of the year party on a super luxury cruise ship.. and then withered and went out of business after having been a massive growth company... WANG class B was a very successful computer IT business in the 1980's and then fell by the wayside. There are literally hundreds of examples of companies that were the Xerox , Kodak, Poloroid.... of their day and are no longer with us. There were 400 publicly traded automobile companies in the 1920's... most went out of business.... with no return for the common share holder. AMPEX was a huge growth company that went up by 1000% in the late 1960's to go out of business. In the massive "Go-Go" market of 1967-68.. the top ten growth companies all went up by more than 1000% and every single one of them was out of business by 1972. a dirty secret of stock investing and all index averages is that they *conceal the "surviorship bias*" where by all of the companies that wither and die are culled from the S& P 500 and Russell 2000 etc and so the returns that are shown by the averages .. do not reflect all the money lost in stocks that were high flyers or at least viable at one time and then wither and die. The other dirty secret is that when they are telling you of index returns they positively optimize the index results by using a starting period like the start of 1975.. when the stock market had just gone through a multiyear liquidation bear market. Ibbotson is a firm that computes that type of data .. when I was in Morgan Stanley's FA training program they had us reading hundred's of pages of online info on all aspects of investing... being a quasi nerd .. I actually critically read some of the material instead of just breezing right through it... you did not need that type of info to pass the licensing exams and I already had a current series 7 license... It actually spoke well of Morgan Stanley that they made as much material available as they did. corporate.morningstar.com John

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