Ken,
In your discussion of AMAT, INTC, and MSFT you failed to mention the underlying fundamentals, sales and earnings growth. INTC and MSFT have them in spades, and, by correctly ignoring hype and making use of an opportunity afforded you by market psychology, you profited.
Currently, AMAT has negative sales and earnings growth and there is no visibility for improved prospects. Eventually, AMAT's fortunes will improve, and most of us favor accumulating shares. There is nothing wrong with trying to get the best price. An average price of $20 is significantly better than $30. You have bought at $33, $28, and $23 and many think you will have another chance in the $15-$20 range.
Investor psychology is not extremely negative on semi-equips! When you post that you sold your positions at $18 because the price is certainly going to $10, that is negative psychology. When you suggest that the price might pop up to 30 in the face of declining bookings and lowered earnings estimates, that is extremely positive psychology.
I generally agree with your strategic position. I bought at $29 and will buy again at $22 and $15. I just think that things will get very scary in the next 6 months and it will be difficult for investors to HOLD let alone BUY at the bottom. Traditionally, most investors buy at the TOP and sell at the BOTTOM. These threads should prevent investors from selling AMAT and other semi-equips at the bottom and hopefully help them buy more.
Cary |
