North American Access Equipment Sales to Double by 2001,
Market to Top $4 Billion; New Study Shows Narrowband
Access Continuing to Drive the Loop Access Market, xDSL
Mass Deployment to Begin in 2000
August 4, 1998
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE) via NewsEdge
Corporation -- Shipments of telephone network access
equipment will soar from 1997 market sales of $2 billion to
$4.2 billion in 2001, according to a new report issued by
ryan hankin kent, inc. The report, "Loop Access
Systems: Technology and Markets," predicts that
growth in demand for access equipment will initially be
driven by deployments of narrowband systems, with
mass deployment of broadband xDSL systems beginning
in 2000.
The report identifies xDSL, particularly ADSL, as the
industry's next-generation technology for data and
Internet access. Driven by explosive growth of Internet
access subscribers and competitive deployment of cable
modems, ADSL has progressed through trials in 1997
with xDSL deployment projected to reach 49,000 lines by
the end of 1998. The UAWG (Universal ADSL Working
Group) initiative to develop a splitterless ADSL
specification will slow ADSL deployment in 1998 but
accelerate it in 1999 and beyond. According to Claude
Romans, senior analyst, "Because xDSL can provide a
delivery platform for high-speed data, as well as future
video services, we expect deployment to pick up
significantly as more products become available in the
market and standards are finally stable."
In the "bottom's up" approach that forms the basis of the
forecast RHK analysts evaluated each carrier's system
architecture and rate of deployment for loop access
systems. RHK forecasts that the total access systems
market will grow at a 16 percent annual rate. Most of this
expansion will be generated by increasing demand for
narrowband access technologies due to continued new
subscriber growth, second line growth, and deployments
of new services.
The report documents a varied pattern of growth among
the access systems deployed by ILECs. "Because of cost
of field-performance issues of current systems, ILEC
deployment of broadband/fiber-to-the-curb activity is
winding down or has completely stopped with
fiber-to-the-curb systems being deployed as narrowband
only, broadband ready systems," observed Steve
Korzyniowski, senior analyst. He added, "Trial activity
has shifted to non-fiber broadband alternatives, such as
xDSL."
ryan hankin kent, inc. is a market research firm that
specializes in analysis of advanced communications
technologies and services that affect the PSTN, cable TV
and external data/IP networks. The company has
achieved a reputation for detail and accuracy in the
telecommunications industry. The "Loop Access
Systems: Technology and Markets" report is one of the
volumes comprising RHK's STAR (Systems for
Telecommunications: Analysis and Research)
continuous information service; a forecast of markets
and technologies affecting the future of
telecommunications in North America's public networks.
RHK is based in South San Francisco, California. For
more information, visit the company's website at:
HYPERLINK rhk.com or contact Mike Mahan
at 650/737-9600, fax 650/737-9766.
Note to Editors: A graphic reflecting access market
trends is available for publication. Please contact
Catherine Cook, email: catherine_cook@rhk.com, voice:
(+1) 650/737-9600.
CONTACT: ryan hankin kent, inc. | Mike Mahan / Jim
Kent, 650/737-9600
[Copyright 1998, Business Wire]
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