ADSL (G-Lite) for dummies - AWRE,PAIR,ORCT,ASND,COMS,NN Message Board

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Technology Stocks : ADSL (G-Lite) for dummies - AWRE,PAIR,ORCT,ASND,COMS,NN

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To: JW@KSC who wrote (182)	5/17/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) of 201

I didn't think I was being all doom and gloom. Obstacles are there, and as they are solved, bottlenecks tend to form on other parts of the network. Right now, the bottleneck is in the Last Mile. Which is one reason why DSL is so attractive from an investment standpoint. My point was that the 8 meg splitterless modem really relieves a lot of the congestion from the CO to the home--but will tend to aggravate shortages on equipment/bandwidth in the CO. And that shortage is certainly already there. The example I like to cite was my experimentation with ISDN. I signed up for my extra $50 per month, and then (1) was frequently unable to connect because of busy signals, (2) when connected, saw little incremental increase in speeds, and (3) was forced to make a toll call to connect to the ISDN portal. (1) I got busy signals because they had not upgraded their services within the central office to take the additional call volume they would be getting; (2) I saw little speed increase because the problem was primarily in the servers, not through my little copper "pipette". I ran a tracert at the time, and could clearly see things hanging up in my ISP's connections to their service provider, and in their connection closest to me. That last connection would be the DSLAM in a dsl configuration. (3) Unrelated, but it really was insulting to have to pay $5 a month in toll charges to reach the ISP! My point is not to be Doom and Gloom. These are all eminently handleable issues. And the payoff in terms of information that can flow through the telcos' wires is huge. But, they do take investment. On dark fiber--There is a lot of it out there, and "lighting" it is the least expensive part of the proposition. Re DSL rollout--Bell Atlantic has been rolling out DSL for a long time--long on promise and slow on rollout. They now say that by the eve of the Year 2000 they will have under 20% of lines in New Jersey eligible for DSL. Not very impressive. (But, understandable from their perspective of protecting their investment in ISDN and T1 infrastructure and revenues.) Re DSP's--are there any purer plays in DSP's than TI? I haven't seen any. I recognize that TI is the leader here. Re Broadband and Network companies--Are you ignoring the wireless side? QCOM on the mobile wireless side has of course already made a huge move. Who's out there for Fixed Broadband Wireless? And for satellite wireless?

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