Hi All! This will be an interesting week. Mr. Market is rationally
nervous. Iraq IMO would be a sideshow if it were not so important to
the Oils, which make up a good chunk of the overall indexes. I think
instead of sending missles up his A** we should just send him pictures
of his military might slowly rusting in the desert. Then we have the interesting images of the Oral office, which IMO is another non-event.
But it does hinder Bill's attempt to fund the IMF bailout, which IMO
is the key market event. Those were some pretty big guns rolled out
Friday to try to gain a possitive reception in Congress.
But the key event is 2:15 p.m. Tuesday when Greenie and Co. release there decision on the current state of interest rates. I've painfully learned not to try to anticipate the fed's moves but simply wait for their decision, gauge the initial market response, and jump on board.
This is one advantage to being a little investor as we can move quicker. The regional banks were down for Jan after being the all-star performers in this decade. Tuesday could be a catalyst for them.
Speaking of Congress, saw a cute joke recently. If "pro" has positive
implications and "con" has negative implications, and "progress" implies to move forward, what does "congress" mean?
I'm playing, in my spare time, with a barometer of market direction.
I've noted before that I'm impressed with the trends reflected in weekly MACD. So, I've divided the DJIA into seven "baskets" based on my observations of the weekly MACD: 1) Bullish signal issued this past week, 2) Bullish trend in place, 3) Bullish but pending change possible, 4) Bearish signal issued this week, 5) Bearish trend in place, 6) Bearish but pending change possible, and 7) Clear Indecision. My observed results: 1) 5 (S, UTX, AA, ALD, WMT), 2) 5
(MRK, EK, JNJ, DIS, MCD), 3) 3 (T, KO, PG), 4) 1 (MO), 5) 6 (XON, DD, TRV, HWP, IBM), 6) 9 (CAT, JPM, CHV, GM, GT, MMM, IP, UK, BA), and
7) 1 (GE). Let me know if you disagree with any of my classifications.
While it would be simplistic to just look at the bullish and bearish patterns, BAMBI (Berney's Analytical Market Barometer Index)
will compare the sum of categories 1, 2 and 6 to the sum of 3, 4 and 5. Thus, Bullish = 19; Bearish = 10 equals bullish on market direction. Let the games begin! Comments or Suggestions from fellow Dudes and others are welcome.
Now then, back to work (Ugh!).
Berney
P.S. Steve, CAT is in middle of labor negotiations and Mr. Market is anxiously watching. IMO with any perceived favorable resolution, it will move -- until then, a turtle. |
