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Wacky winter a signal of years to come: Climatologist
By Margaret Munro, Canwest News ServiceMarch 9, 2010
From the balmy Arctic, to the open water of the St. Lawrence and snowless western fields, this winter has been the warmest and driest in Canadian record books.
Environment Canada scientists report that winter 2009/10 was 4 C above normal, making it the warmest since nationwide records were first kept in 1948. It was also the driest winter on the 63-year record, with precipitation 22 per cent below normal nationally, and down 60 per cent in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario.
"It's beyond shocking," David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told Canwest News Tuesday. Records have been shattered from "coast to coast to coast."
"It is truly a remarkable situation," says Phillips, noting that he's seen nothing like it in his 40 years of weather watching. He also warns that "the winter than wasn't" may have set the stage for potentially "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations and wildfires this summer.
As much of Asia, Europe and the U.S. shivered through and shovelled out of freak winter storms, Phillips says Canada was left on the sidelines.
"It's like winter was cancelled in this country," he says.
Temperature across Canada, except for a small area over the southern Prairies, were above normal, with some parts of Nunavut and northern Quebec more than six degrees above normal, he and his colleagues report. It's been "downright balmy" in much of the north, the St. Lawrence River is all but ice free, as are waters off Newfoundland, while Vancouver had to haul in snow for the Winter Olympics.
Phillips says the extraordinary winter appears to be tied to several factors, chief among them El Nino, a shift in the winds and ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean, and the shrinking Arctic ice, which has thinned and retreated markedly in recent years.
"I think it's a combination of a strong El Nino and the shrinking and disappearance of the ice at the top of the world," says Phillips, adding that changing "pressure spots" in the Arctic and Atlantic also played a role. "They've all been working in cahoots to create this unbelievable winter."
Spring does not officially start until March 20, but Environment Canada classifies winter as December through February and has just finished pulling together data from across the country. The department's report was quietly posted online this week.
It says the long-term record shows Canada's climate has changed, most markedly in the winter, which has warmed 2.5 C over the last 63 years.
"The winter season shows the greatest warming of any season, but all seasons have shown a warming trend since 1948," says the summary. Of the 10 warmest winters, four have occurred within the last decade, and 11 of the last 20 winters are listed among the 20 warmest.
This winter was a standout, with records being shattered from B.C. to Baffin Island to the Great lakes. The North saw extraordinary temperatures, with three regions setting "a new high mark" — the Arctic tundra 5.4 C above normal, Arctic mountains and fiords 5.3 C above normal, and northwestern forest 4.2 C above normal.
Spring has now arrived in many parts of Canada with cherry trees in full bloom on the West Coast, and Phillips says, "crocuses already blossoming in Labrador."
The warm, dry winter could spell big trouble this summer. "One of the greatest things about our winter is it kills bugs and diseases and resets the clock for us," says Phillips. Or, it used to. He says many pests are sure to be thriving after this year's warm winter.
"Everything weird, wild and wacky that happens this summer people will trace back to the year without winter," says Phillips, noting that soil moisture in the western Prairies is very low.
Environment Canada's spring forecast does not hold much relief. Temperatures over much of the country are predicted to be warmer and drier than normal until the end of May.
As for the longer term, Phillips says the trend points to Canadian winters getting shorter and warmer. This year's wacky winter, he says, may be a sign of things to come.
"This may be dress rehearsal of what we'll see as normal in years to come," says Phillips, suggesting it is time to start adapting to the new warmer reality.
"We don't have to sit here and wait for Mother Nature to get us," says Phillips.
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