Mike: this is not really a reply, CRUDE....oil and jus a how are u..and a fuuny story..as u know I asked u'r opinion on AMD, I
like her but bought in to soon..she came right on down, i said well, what a mess, I doubled up...she fell..I doubled up again, 3 double ups
thats 1+1+2 2+2=4 and 4+4=8, so I'm in 8 times more than I wanted
to be..but I got my average down to 12.05..and after starting at
16.25 that's was a <G>...I want to stay long as I like her..but now
have other thoughts..she poped up for a bit so the 12.50 puts got
cheap..and I grabed some ins..damm this one has worked me hard..
I want to stay long..but at the lowest point..as it could take her a while to claw her way up to even 14...I know she will but when..
any way after chasing her all the way down..I got a rare insight
almost unheard of, in this market, but my puts now have me locked
into a small..but very small profit, and I'm looking at her sidways,
still long..if she drops down again to about 10, I can do one or
two things..pull the trigger on my puts, and stay out, or run down
under her, and buy back..my problem now is the insight..
I don't want to be accused of being a market seeer, or such, heck
I'm far to green for that..but I do know one thing..as I work in the
oil patch a lot..Crude oil..hmmm hope I can make this make sence
and not sound like I'm trying to be a wise guy, as I'v learned a
lot reading your post..I read them all..any way all the jive..
hype..and buzz words that greenspan..cnn,..and cnbc..and all them
gurus do not point at the problem..intrest..labor..unemployment..
it's like they are beating around the bush..trying to look smart,
or just feeding us bullcorn..CRUDE OIL..I'v been watching it ease
up for several months..or longer..crap thats the stuff that we
use..not just to go to work..hell no , the gas we burn in our cars
is just a small part..every thing is so dam tied to the price of
crude oil..it's king..and the primary leading factor in the way
we are going.."if it goes up, profits go down ", across the board,
except for the oil companies, and some utilities that can factor
it in and pass the cost along..the last time crude oil was this
high we went into a ressesion..Texas went in last but came out last
too..yep the oil patch is booming..but look out..Crude is too high
it will stagnate the rest if it don't come down..we are already
in a resesion..it just has not been felt by some of the more
insulated persons in socity..
Mike what I saw and see depresses me, it's that sad, I do not wish
to be called an alarmist..but I did a hard look at the mutual funds,
they are in big troble..a cash flow got the in june..from over
25 bil..cash flow in may down to 14.5 coming in june..and july
is worse yet, and they are tring to stone wall every one..meanwhile
people are pulling out..not in mass yet..but .5 bil reported
pulled out, ithink it's higher..just the same..they say they got
cash but the don't..and they are being squessed into selling off,
to get cash for the outs..it's really more scary than it looks..
the G funds show only about at 6% drop in the last 4 weeks..BUT..the
last seven days it was a 22% drop G+ grouth funds..lot of them
are tied into other less risky funds, but they don't look so hot
either..this is a real mess..we never had this many funds before,
or this much money just tossed at the market..like last year..
hope you know that is the life savings of a lot of people..and
fro a 6% in 4 weeks, to a 22% drop in 7 days, says it's speeding
up..they are not going to say crap..and if any one wants to take
me to task..just come on down..all the numbers are in the WSJ,
I'v looked and dug hard, & it don't look good at all..and, were
is all the money going....( off shore hedge funds ) are gathering
it up hand over fist..the ones who will not even talk to you if
you don't have 250g's to put in, the one that are out of sight of
most of the press..it's like the exclusive funds, and by law these
offshre funds can only have so many clients, think it's a 100 but
I don't know..don't know much about them at all except the belong
to the super rich..( oil barrons ) and they are making a killing..
not just off the oil..this money that's going out of the market,
it's flowing out of the country just as fast as they can run with
it..not to the bond market..like they want you to think..very little
in respect to the total moved into bonds..not that much moved into
utilities..so were did it go..and are some of the funds trying to
hide their losses, ( you can bet on that too..) Mike it looks
a lot worse..to me this week than it did last week, it's not just
that the fund drain got faster..no I saw things I hadn't looked
at before..they were there but I didn't pay them much mind,,I knew
crude was high..but then it all fell in place..it's been high a
while..it goes up, every thing else goes up or less margins,,
did you look at the future on crude for august..it's not been
that high since the war..and the gas hike in CA, was nothing,
they are absorbing some of that..just to keep from setting off
to many alarms, you are paying for it though in other ways..
jess there is no call for this high price in crude..there is
no shortage..and I work in the patch..drilling improvements are
much better, the geo work is so improved there is almost no such
thing as a dry hole anymore or very rarely..itcost about half
as much to get it out of the ground today..as it did bsck when
it was $12 a bbl, really we do it so much better..so were is
all that money going..all I'v heard from the oil companies,
has conviced me they are the most practiced liars in the world..
take a look at the price of crude..check back and see when it was
over $21.50 before, and remember what happened..this time kiss
about 40% of the savings away that the little guy put into
the markets, and funds...( thats what it will be before the smoke
clears )..it's a mess..now Mike I'm not doing this to be some
know it all..in fact it pains me to talk about it..I will survive
and I'm not lilky to get hurt very bad..but I feel sorry already
for a lot of people who are just being stone walled and have
no idea yet of this the 6% in 4 weeks to 20% in the last seven
days..and yes I know that don't exactly fit the picture..but that
also concerns me..because it doen't fit the sell off picture
means they have been playing with the books..so as to keep it
under wraps as long as they could..the early looses were likly
played down..so maybe just maybe it's not speeding up, they could
just have juggled the books at first then finally got it caught
up in the last 7 days..god I never thought I see the day I would
say I hope they are or were lying, and heavens knows I hope I'm wrong
so don't just jump my case, explaine it away..as it's depressing
as hell to me..I want to go long but how can I do it now..
likly pull the trigger on my puts..and just wait it out..dammm
well if I am right , not being an expert, but I'v noticed this
before,,if I see gold and silver go up,, it will be the tip off,
that the bad news is really apone us ( don't go any body go buy
gold because I said this , I'm not..but then I always have a
litlle stake in a mining Co..or 2, but I like copper as a hedge'
betten than gold or silver, then if the gold does go up, and it
finally peaks, and starts down..the market will have bottomed,
and thats what I'm going to be looking to see..and they can wipe
their rears with all that analizing..and fluff from the consumboom
index, and jump thur this loop while I make a hole for my buddy
report to feed the public..
It looks bad my friend, cheer me up some..I got some friends
that if what I see is true they are really going to hurt..my
holdings are very small now..except for AMD, and I got puts on
her..damm I want it to go up.. and don't even want to guess
on the low..we never had this sort of situation, never realized
just how large the fund game had got..that's bound to put
a new twist on things..didn't mean for this to get so long
winded, I just had to get it out..
jim
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