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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk
SOXL 47.71+0.7%Oct 31 4:00 PM EDT
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To: robert b furman who wrote (194323)10/19/2023 6:45:19 AM
From: SGJ3 Recommendations

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robert b furman
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Good summary Bob. I found this article this morning that does an insightful deep dive on the current state of Fed Debt and interest rates:

investing.com

We expose a current false narrative in our recent Daily Commentary. To wit:

Listening to the media or Twitter, one might think Treasury debt issuance over the last six months is off the charts. Such stories are far from the truth when looked at from the right perspective. Consider the graphs below. The top left graph shows federal debt is growing slightly faster than the pre-pandemic years but well below prior surges.

The right chart puts debt growth on a log scale to show the current growth rate is actually slightly below the trend of the last fifty years. Lastly, the bottom graph shows the sharp increase in debt to GDP during the pandemic. However, it has declined since. A high debt-to-GDP ratio, as we have, is very problematic. But false narratives claiming recent issuance is well above average are flat-out wrong.


Total Federal Debt


Total Federal Debt Log

The recent sell-off in bond prices and increasing yields is not due to “massive” Treasury debt issuance. Nor is it due to China, Japan, or other nations selling our bonds. The reason is noise.


Debt To GBP
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