America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (1932)	2/26/1997 4:14:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	of 13594

Bill, Surely you have lost your way....this here is BEAR country, son! (Just kidding, I have been enjoying your contributions. And I was a lonely bull) I don't know about the short term for this stock. Definitely not my forte. Are you expecting the upward move "off to the races" to come from short covering? There are still 22 million short... I have observed from my wanderings through these parts that the short arguments usually require AOL and its management to stand still while the rest of the world progresses. To hold the technololgy, capacity, and business partners static while the web and AOL's competitors innovate. It ain't that simple.... The Tel-Save deal is a big step into a new business for AOL. Wake up call! The AOL's co-branded VISA card is another that gets little mention. There will be others. It's predictable. Last I checked the AOL Banking channel had 19 providers. AOL Brokerage has ETrade, E-Schwab, and PCFN. Yes, these providers are on the web. And they are on AOL. Barnes and Noble is just cranking up. Should be a winner. The overriding message with Tel-Save is that the AOL user demographics are dynamite, and having that pre-set billing capability against the member's credit card is a big and marketable asset for AOL. Completely electronic enrollment, billing and payment. No paper. The story unfolds. Is Case an idiot or a genius? We bounced off 70 a good while back. More recently we bounced off low 20's. There has been a reversal and the longs are in control. Alex Brown says positive operating cash flow in Calendar 97 will be $125-150 million. After prepays $200-250 million. Bears are needing a new argument. I say, go long for upside surprises. Stay short and you will keep calling it the possessed and uncooperative stock from hell... Brian

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