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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold
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To: Carl R. who wrote (1997)1/5/2000 8:40:00 PM
From: Ron S   of 5582
 
Yesterday, in one of the worst days for the market in a long time, GUMM shares were under no pressure. There was a notable lack of sell orders of 1000+ shares on Level II for the first time in weeks. Today, with a relatively mild market recovery, the stock had a very strong finish. Whether you use moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or just your eyeballs, the stock acts like it wants to rise significantly.
The news is good with: (1) executive option exercise without any significant money-raising share sales; (2) the cold season in full bloom without much cold weather yet; (3) Zicam well established in most of the largest drug and grocery chains; (4) Zicam coming off the shelves at a rapid rate without any significant advertising yet; (5) one of the world's larger (non)tobacco companies signed on to promote the nicotine gum.
Can the news get better - you bet. The clinical study can be released (with the number of people saying it helps them limit a cold, is there any real doubt as to the conclusion).
The product can get more national publicity, and it will, given the large number of satisfied users. Fourth quarter revenue growth will be announced and should be astounding since it is compared to periods when the product was not really available. It may well be accompanied by the first period of profit. Finally, the stock has an extraordinary short position, about 15% of the outstanding shares and a much higher proportion of the float. The potential squeeze on these doubters could be unbearable in the 20's and then 30's; this covering should lead to sharp upward spurts.
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