And some more OT's from the NTAP thread
To: Chris O'Connor who wrote (1932)
From: DownSouth Tuesday, Dec 28, 1999 6:12 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1936 of 1955
OT,
Chris, I am wrong most of the time.
I am not saying that JDSU is not a great stock with good years ahead of it. I am merely saying that the barriers to entry do not include intellectual property. They do now "own" the technology that is making them successful.
See ya' on the JDSU thread.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: HDC who wrote (1933)
From: DownSouth Tuesday, Dec 28, 1999 6:19 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1937 of 1955
These numbers seem consistent with what we have seen elsewhere. I recall the 46% market share number appearing numerous times.
The EMC NAS offering is still empty. No description. "NUMA" means nothing. BTW, NTAP uses NUMA technology for CPU to CPU communications in clustered configurations. It is key to the way NTAP shadows non-volatile RAM (NVRAM) between systems so that if one goes down, the second takes over the failed system's I/O duties without a hitch and hands those duties back when the system recovers.
EMC's use of NUMA in a similar manner will not threaten NTAP's throne in the "fast, simple, reliable" world. NUMA is just one bit of the equation. WAFL, SNAPSHOT, ONTAP and other software are every bit as important as NUMA.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: Hanney Yin who wrote (1934)
From: DownSouth Tuesday, Dec 28, 1999 6:22 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1938 of 1955
JDSU's biggest customer's include LU and NT. The thing to watch is one of them deciding to fabricate their own components which they now get from JDSU.
Let's not get carried away with this thing. I am only trying to draw the important distinction between the power of a King, like JDSU, and a Gorilla, like QCOM. QCOM owns its enabling technology. No one can fabricate or use that technology (CDMA) without paying royalties to QCOM. Both will continue to be great investments. One must be more cautions with Kings, that's all.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: DownSouth who wrote (1937)
From: 100cfm Thursday, Dec 30, 1999 11:33 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1939 of 1955
DS did you also see that emc will not come out with this until end of next yr. ntap should be too far ahead to catch by then. a yr is an eternity in the internet world.
100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: DownSouth who wrote (1938)
From: 100cfm Thursday, Dec 30, 1999 11:45 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1940 of 1955
DS someone also posted a report from the fool which showed that sli's production capacity is equal to jdsu's on certain
chips for their pump lasers(hope thats the right component, head still foggy from last night). but the point is as you said, jdsu is not a gorilla and competition can close in on jdsu. the lower power lasers seem to already be a cheap commodity. this is the danger in kings, their products can be commodisized. while holding jdsu i will keep a close eye on the quantity of components produced and a closer eye on their competitons numbers. not something worry about now since jdsu is twice the size of all their competitors but need to make sure that gap is maintained or widened.
100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: 100cfm who wrote (1939)
From: DownSouth Thursday, Dec 30, 1999 12:54 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1941 of 1955
Centry man, we don't even know what the EMC offering will be. I have been in the software business "all my life", and the prediction of a product late next year means +/- 6 months (usually +).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: DownSouth who wrote (1941)
From: 100cfm Thursday, Dec 30, 1999 1:00 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1942 of 1955
Sort of reminds me of the fud that mot and ericy were throwing at the Q. as the manual says, 90% of the news you read is worthless. buying more calls in here.
100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: 100cfm who wrote (1942)
From: Lucius M. Lamar Friday, Dec 31, 1999 10:24 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1943 of 1955
EMC head predicts huge growth rate in storage market, twice that of the last 5 years. I'm sure NTAP will get it's share too. I own both.
Message 12421964
The almost sure growth of their target market takes away a good bit of the risk of these issues (compared to some other techs).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: Lucius M. Lamar who wrote (1943)
From: 100cfm Friday, Dec 31, 1999 10:52 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1944 of 1955
Lucius thanks for that link.
i like the fact that ntap's qtr. doesn't end till Jan.
We might get a little extra pop in earnings from pent up demand.
do you know if ntap breaks out number of systems sold in the quartly report?
100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: 100cfm who wrote (1944)
From: HDC Friday, Dec 31, 1999 12:09 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1945 of 1955
100cfm, Hi! The number of systems question is usually asked by an analyst during the conference call. NTAP sold 1100 units last quarter (October) and 930 units in the July quarter. NTAP conference calls are now broadcast live from their website. They are also archived for replay. You can listen to last quarter's call in the Investor Relations part of their website. The next cc will be in February 2000.
I appreciated your story on the G & K thread. My great winner this year has been NTAP following 2 great years with DELL. I realized back in May that DELL would not continue to grow at its glorious historic levels now that it is an $18 Billion a year company. The G & K and NTAP threads have been the most helpful. They are MUCH more civil than other threads on other websites. More importantly, they are inhabited by some of the wisest people with regard to understanding technology and separating the winners from the also-rans. DownSouth has been particularly helpful as a sounding board for NTAP.
I also lost a large sum of money on a technology company which was promoted as the next big thing. I learned from these threads the importance of "first-mover" status and "intellectual property rights (IPR)" and the markets to which these issues are addressed. The Gorilla Game book is a good manual on how to apply Gorilla type principles. The G & K thread (and NTAP thread as a King) are where these terrific ideas are applied day to day.
The Gilder Report is also very helpful in understanding these technologies.
May NTAP continue its run in 2000.
Best,
Duncan
|
