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Technology Stocks : Music Download (AAPL, ROXI, RNWK, AOL, MSFT, AMZN)

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To: Mason Barge who started this subject7/24/2003 8:39:04 AM
From: Mason Barge   of 50
 
"AAPL is interested in ROXI for their Windows CD burning capacity. Also RNWK is interested in acquiring Roxio. Price is rumored to be $11.00 a share for ROXI. All rumors of course."

marketwatch.com

Geez, and I thought I was a genius chart-reader finding the nice pennant/flag and loading up two days ago :) Well, I'd rather be lucky than smart. Or maybe the technicals reflected stealth buying on the rumor and I'm a genius after all, who knows?

It would seem like an awful lot of redundant capacity though, for Apple. I mean, the legacy software business at ROXI is worth, what, $5-$6 per share? Roxio has a lot of cash and two very big publishers (Sony and Universal) with a stake in Pressplay, along with an existing infrastructure for downloading songs.

They also just put the president of Universal's developing "media and technologies" division on the Roxio Board of Directors. You think Apple can buy Roxio out from under Vivendi's nose (not to mention Sony's)? I don't see it, although I'd be happy to take my eleven bucks per share if they want my vote in a proxy fight. I'll take mine in cash, please.

With our new entrant to the coming flood of players in this industry niche, though, I imagine one thing Apple REALLY needs is the Napster name, which had to be the deal of the century at $5 million. The difference in marketing appeal to young Wintel uses, as between "Napster" and "Apple", would be like the difference between "Eminem" and "Lawrence Welk". (Okay, didn't mean to insult Apple, how about maybe Britney Spears and The Indigo Girls instead of Eminem and Lawrence Welk?)

As for RNWK (which I also own btw), wth? They haven't got enough money. Even if it was just a matter of paying the $300 M for 27M shares at $11. But even worse, if anybody wants to stop them -- well, they can't fight Apple, and they sure as hell can't touch Vivendi or Sony, who could swallow RNWK like a fat lady with a chocolate covered cherry.
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