Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 196.46

-5.1%

1:21 PM EST

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To: Billy Dunn who wrote ()	7/2/1996 2:18:00 AM
From: Billy Dunn	of 61433

Subj: short ASND Date: 96-06-28 02:27:39 EDT From: KGG0 MF Raliegh: I think the key is comparing IOMG and ASND is in the growth of the underlying market. Even if the PC market is growing 20%/year, the internet is growing 10%/week (at least according to the WSW transcript). Your short will really cost you if ASND is able to continue to maintain its share over the next 6 months or so. On the other hand, I believe the combination of CSCO/Stratacom will be a significant competitor and the ASND's share will start to decline over the next year or two. This may or may not be a problem. Slight declines in share could be hidden by tremendous market growth. Faster declines will probably result in disappointing results sometime over the next year or two. Almost certainly not this quarter. Personally, I think the risk/reward ratio on shorting this stock is pretty unfavorable, especially in the short term. Of course I am long, and generally an optimist, so maybe my wishes are clouding my judgement. Keith

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