I am a lurker, and purely a Technical Analyst, and am neither a BULL or a BEAR on MU. In fact I bought the the SEPT 60 PUTs when it was 60, now I am looking at the possibility of going long.
From a purely technical viewpoint, the technicals on MU are right now the lowest for the past 52 weeks, meaning that technically it is extremely oversold. To explain my ta system, I use over 10 different technical indicators and every single one of them are in the basement.
I really do not follow the fundamentals, but am aware that they will be announcing MONDAY after the close.
From the technicals, MU has dropped so much that if MU is close to the expectation of the street and the forward statement is at least fair
then MU will reverse upwards within 5 days. Of course if the earnings are very bad, MU is going down. My position is that the fundamentals alway over-ride the technicals.
My Question is - was MU's earnings ever ammended downwards or is it still the same as when it was at 60. If it was never officially ammended downwards, what is the whisper #/street expectation. If it was never ammended downward and street expectation is still the same as when it was at $60, then the chances for MU to go down further will be strong, however it is hard for me to belive that such was not reduced, either officially or per street's true expectation, in light of MU dropping from 60 to 37 in a relatively short period of time.
The PUT to CALL ratio is now heavily in favor of the PUTs, but I do not use that as a reliable indicator.
The next support line is at 34 and it is relatively a very strong support line. I am not saying that MU will see 34 on Monday, but if MU does drop, such support line should hold until they actually announce, then we go from there.
In my analysis I consider the strength of the various INDEXES. The SOX(SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX), which MU is a component of, is technically quite strong and the chances of it setting new highs are good. Such strength in SOX will also help minimize negativity from the earnings to a certain degree. In other words if the SOX was weak, and MU came out with bad numbers, the weakness in the SOX would help push MU down further.
Would appreciate if anyone could respond specificly to the above questions. Sorry to intrude, since I am not a regular - but seriously considering getting CALLS on MU.
Thanks |
