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My previous statements relative to growth and earnings are in post #1869 and I see no reason to change them at this point, especially since the company has recently stated that they are comfortable with FY '98 estimates of .50-.55 cents. As to the the growth rate in core products, without any System Wizard contribution, based on industry growth, and SYSF's historical track record, it should, conservatively, run at 50% going forward. Additionally, SYSF has been increasing its efforts to gain share in the desktop arena, which is a much larger market than its traditional notebook market, and the Universal Serial Port product mentioned in the Packard Bell article is indicative of this. This has gone unnoticed with all the SystemWizard noise. Expectations with the inclusion of SystemWizard were running at about 75% annual growth according to Oppenheimer, and Volpe Welty. H & Q recently estimated .45 cents for FY '98 (current FY) and .75 cents for FY '99, essentially discounting the ramp up of SystemWizard in a downgrade. This is still 70% and 66% growth respectively. Therefore, I maintain that too much emphasis is put on SystemWizard. The company's prospects are excellent. Even if SystemWizard completely fizzled, and SYSF traded at less than half of even H & Q's downgraded growth rate, it could eaily be in the low to mid $20's within twelve months. It is unfortunate that expectations may have been raised too high, too soon, based only on SystemWizard. Nevertheless, since SystemWizard has been the catalyst for momentum in this stock, and I believe additional OEM deals are imminent, SYSF should have no problem getting a boost in the near future. Additionally, now that expectations have been somewhat diminished, the potential for positive, rather than negative, surprises increase. Now tell me how wrong I am, but please use some facts. |
