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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies

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To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (2004)	1/16/1997 10:00:00 PM
From: John Fairchild	of 24922

Kerm, one thing worthy of concideration regarding gas and oil supplies. The American nuclear industry is rapidly losing capacity. The majority of nuc units on line today were installed over a very short time span during the oil crisis in the early 70's. They are having a very dificult time keeping these aging units on line without major rehab. In many cases units are being declared unavailable and being mothballed to be replaced by very efficient low cap expenditure gas capacity. It is a cheaper alternative than the huge expenditures required to extend the life of these nuc units. NEPEX (the New England power pool) has major problems with lack of capacity due to forced outages on nuc units. If the weather pattern which has persited for much of the winter so far shifts the Artic air from the mid-west to the east you will be seeing greatly increased gas & oil demands. Then we have the deregulation of the electrical power industry just making its presence known by FERC through out the US. Canada is trying to get in step with the unbundling of transmission to allow acceptance by NERC so that Canadian utilities can continue lucrative export sales to the US. Opening up of the electrical industry is going to a huge effect on gas especially. None utility generators (independant power producers) are going to find out just how much money can be made with their gas turbines. Cheaper electricity? I don't think so. Power brokers and independant power producers in many cases will be able to donminate the market. How will this effect the price of gas. We are going to find this out very soon. The long held monopoly by state and municipal utilities are over and with it many of the checks and balances. The gouge meter is just getting turned on. One more little consideration. The US Clean Air Act. This has ever increasing implications for coal fired generating with progressively tighter standards. Much upgrading is required with expensive installation of scrubbers to remove acid gas emissions. Gas has a huge future in electrical industry! John.

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