rgjack...dollar to 85, gold stocks steady, how could it be???
First welcome to ISO's Natural Resource board...you'll find a number of good ideas here and some quite sophisticated and insightful thought....I'm brought in as lamp light when the stars are out...
Secondly, my target of 85 for the USD index was set a couple of weeks ago before the miners started to show much in the way of balance...It is possible that as the dollar completes a corrective rebound from the oversold levels reached late last year that hedge fund miner shorts start getting covered causing the shares to remain relatively stable as the dollar rises...Potential sellers may be pretty well rung out of the miners, though I have positions left, and the remaining shorts may find they have overstayed their hand IF this dollar rally doesn't endure and crack Gold significantly lower.
With the Net Commercial short numbers coming down along with futures' open interest, and trend and other indicators at the bottom of respective scales, if the dollar only has one more hop left of such minor proportions as going to 85, we could be near the end of this corrective cycle which in both Gold and on the HUI looked like it wanted to have five legs.
Gold chart
stockcharts.com[h,a]dacaynay[dd][pb8!c40!c10!f][ill14!lp14,3,3!le12,26,9!lb14!lm12!lya7,14,28!ld20][j34115776,y]&listNum=1
HUI Chart...the comments here were written on 12/7/04. We are in the target box for the HUI with 196 (indicated by the arrow) as the last objective, which if not breached will in my opinion keep this chart bullish...YOu'll notice that we've had greater buying opportunities among the HUI stocks post the conclusion of tax loss selling...
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!h.02,.20][vc60][ill14!le12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lya7,14,28][J41002628,Y]&pref=G |
