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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Paul Shread who wrote (20570)10/2/2001 6:52:09 PM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Paul,
I have to admit the strong close took me by surprise.
I didn't think the market was strong enough to reach Donald's firm Class 1 Sell.
European markets had a surprisingly strong close today, too (before the Fed's announcement).
It did look to me that Friday the 21st was a firm IT bottom (~couple months) for the European markets with the giant hammer on extremely heavy volume, but I was more skeptical about the S&P. In light of recent strength I now think the retest (yes, still waiting for it. No V) will be unsuccessful (no new low), maybe a 61.8% fib retrace.
The Naz remained weaker today and could still make that ED while the S&P backs off to check the firmness of the support.
No big change in the immediate outlook, just improving the forecast for the longer term.
Looks like the anxiety in the market over the implications of the attack on WTC has abated, and we're left with the old slump. The economy was headed the same way before, but now everybody has a great excuse. Valuations are still little short of outrageous so there is no big upside for the market in the long run, and the whole bear market rally of the next few months will be confined by S&P 1150 area.
New lows, however, will have to wait till the disillusion from returning to a path of growth in 2002. This should happen when companies will start predicting and lowering their 2002 targets between December and February.
So maybe the local high of this bear rally will come in December-January and the next lower low in the S&P will have to wait till February-March.

ATG
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