I Stand Squarely In The " Not Sure-But Hopeful " Position.
And thank you for asking and presenting these scenarios.
1. NASDAQ breaking 200 DMA.
The more significant support point is at 3940 , just 40 points to the downside from here. The psychological 4000 marker was taken out in very late trading on Friday after being tested a number of times and repelled .
A rebound is likely after testing the 3940 , or another scenario is opening around 4000 again and more testing at that level.
It depends largely on how the market views the latest OPEC decision. Many an analyst are stating we have only had a 300,000 BBL increase due to leakage. Some are stating there is not enough capacity in tankers etc. to make much difference . I tend to look at things with extreme skepticism from both angles and suggest somewhere in the middle lies the truth. Thus my $ 30.00 projection shorter term that should be encouraging overall , but certainly not the silver bullet that the markets need to slay the inflation vampire , being the blood thirsty evil incarnate it is . –G-
But since we are discussing the NASDAQ here , the only significant influence should be on the DOW and SNP components and the techs that could move in sympathy to them . There has been rotation on an unprecedented scale of late , so even this scenario is to be taken with a measure of caution. Confusion reigns these days , which is just what the Doctors of Wall Street are prescribing I believe.
2. Trimtabs only reported 600 mill entered equities this week ending 9/6/00.
I don’t go much by this on a week on week basis . Early Sept. is not normally a time when people are pumping money into the market. They are evaluating their positions , paying off their vacations , buying stuff for their kids going back to school IE: computers and gizmos <g> . I don’t trust trimtabs either . They take positions in the market and can easily move numbers around to satisfy a position. I’m not saying they are doing that , just that it , like many other indicators , should be given only the credibility it deserves when checks and balances are not monitored for accuracy or prejudice . There’s that skepticism again,eh!
3. Can easy Al print enough clownbux next week and continue his slow destruction of our economy?
That is quite a statement given the unprecedented prosperity America and some of her trading partners are enjoying. However , the trade imbalance must at some time be addressed , but I think more open international trade is the answer , not America being the sponge for all that is produced world wide. Japan, and to a lesser degree, Euro countries , have to relax trade restrictions on a global scale to foster growth .
( Interesting about Japan , less then 10% of the population are currently connected to the Internet . The Internet has proven to be an invaluable productivity tool for North America. Japan needs to address this ).
Yet the high interest rates and strong dollar dictate America to be a vast net importer due to the exchange rate. I believe the onus to be on America’s trading partners to provide more balanced trade. Easy Al ( AKA : Mr. Magoo [ Fleck-Speek } ) , is one heck of a juggler if you ask me. AlGore just placed him on the Dem. ticket to smooth any concerns of wholesale shake-ups when he IS elected. Heh heh heh . I think for every 1 disparaging remark for Mr. Greenspan , there must be 20 congratulatory commendations for his economic policy to date.
4 . What will the dollar buy a year from now after the paper assets collapse?
I have been reading about the demise of the dollar since Christ was a Cowboy on here and other sites .
Those who invested in Gold and other asset classes have reaped the rewards of their paranoia . The world is not out to destroy the almighty dollar. Quite the contrary in fact. The dollar showed remarkable resilience during the Asian Crises and continues to do so regardless of the trade deficit. The Euro looks like a problem child not wanting to or able to grow up and get some respect . The UK is looking upon this now with more skepticism than ever and will not likely enter into the fray any time soon , no matter how isolated they may become.
There is actually open discussion in Canada ( a taboo in years gone by ) of having more open boarders and mobility in North America , as well as stronger ties to the dollar than there exists now. I personally believe this would be a good thing for both countries , however , the fact the Bloc Quebecois are rooting for it makes me suspicious. ( once a separatist – always a separatist I say ) I think they want closer ties to America to lessen the Imperial influence that is/ was and will always be a thorn in their side.
But it is a vote of confidence in the Dollar and America , and should be taken as such. I think where some Americans fail in their analysis of their own economics is that they look at it from within and not from a comparative perspective of other countries. The doom and gloom witnessed can only be from those that have had it so good for so long I guess. The more you have , the more fear you have of loosing it . Simple huh?
OK. I took a small long position late Friday after exiting the market early in the week. These “ timely “ downgrades were the Masters Of The Universe at their sickest I believe. Caught many off balance and since the sheep( me included ) are so easily herded from one thing to another , is was a perfectly successful execution. I will not stand in the way of the madness of crowds – up or down.
Time will tell the accuracy of these analyst’s projections , but the market has an eerie way of forgetting the bad calls and remembering the good. This I will leave for further evaluation when the numbers are released.
The early warning system has been switched on again , so keep a good eye out for incoming projectiles.
Regards,
KC |
