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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (199)	7/20/2005 12:47:42 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 50663

re: Oil and China Demand.... I've been pounding the table for sometime now - that China's demand surge in Oil is unsustainable and while China is certainly on a longterm expansion path, this recent surge in demand was related to a unique construction boom in their efforts to show off the China Miracle to the World by the 2008 Beijing Olympic's and that their rate of growth & demand would dramatically slow. That aside from the fact that they are not too far from the brink of systemic collapse in their Banking System and a forced Re-Peg, higher Oil/Natural Resource Prices, or a slowing US Economy could accelerate that eventuality imo. Now Credit Suisse has seen the light... aireview.com Lot's of risk relative to reward in the Oils imo. I use the parallel to it being similar to the environment at NAZ 3500. It was what it was... but, no one got "paid" for "being right" on what it was - while standing in front of a irrational speculative Freight Train at NAZ 3500. As far as trading the Oilpatch here, I was able to cash in a few straddled calls on this move - still have some LEAP calls in place that I'll save for one more potential parabolic move up...and have only re-added a couple of puts here...as earnings are obviously going to be very strong here and I prefer to give the Oilpatch Bulls a little more rope in which to hang themselves once again. Just playing a moderate Option Straddle position here.. nothing large, or remotely portfolio weighted - as the disconnect from the fundmanentals and what I and many others clearly see as Oil being used to strongarm the Chinese on Trade, Geopolitical and Currency issues - not indicative of a positive risk:reward environment in which to trade. I'm just patiently waiting for the next big breakout to short or, ultimately that final rollover. A US Recession will do just that... smoke & mirrors and and the endless Refinance ATM-machine can't keep things going much longer in the US imo. PS: Oil started is retracement recently - right off of Greenspans comments that Oil Prices were finally starting to negatively affect the US Economy...

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