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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk
SOXL 61.79-12.3%Jan 30 4:00 PM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (2122)4/3/2002 4:32:22 AM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (2) of 208190
 
Yes, they may have taken that action, but Sy Harding perfected it (that is using the MACD 12.26.9 as a buy and sell indicator for the Seasonality Indicator).

I have created this indicator in excel back to 1950 using 5 different criteria. I will not discuss my two but but the published three are well known, and they are 1) buy on Nov 1 and sell on April 30; 2) buy on the day before the last day of in October and sell on the 4th trading day of May; and 3) use MACD for a buy and sell.

Regarding No. 3, in my system and Hardings's if the MACD is on a sell signal on 4/1 -- it is discounted. Then, wait for a buy and sell or sell on the 4th trading day of May -- whichever comes sooner.

I have 50 years of data using this system. Too many times the MACD has been on a sell on 4/1 and reversed up and kicked ass until early or mid May.

Want a recent example -- on 4/1/99 DOW closed at 9832.15 and MACD was on a sell. Reversed up on 4/7 and then gave a sell on 5/11/99 at 11026.15.

Next one -- 4/1/97 with MACD on a sell and DOW at 6611.05 --reversed up on 4/16 with a final sell signal on 5/29 and the DOW at 7330.18 Would have been real stupid to sell at 6611.05 And so it goes.

Will this be the year that it goes to hell and doesn't work. Sure could be. I have a drop dead stop in place. But I'll play the odds that brought me this data. I'm not transferring yet.

Take care,

Eric
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