I have read the following on several different threads over the recent past, but it has never felt as appropriate as it does when applied to FOCS.
Mark
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Anyone that gets so nervous that they cannot wait as long (as short) as another week or two
should reconsider their fortitude for investing. If you look at any of the huge money making
stock market stories over the last five years and you wonder - boy it was so easy - just invest
$100 in Dell and take out $750,000 five years later - why couldn't I have gotten in on that? The
answer is you could have. But most people are too blind, too squeamish, too quick to panic,
too quick to take short-term profits, too near-sighted to envision the true magnitude of the
"down the road" potential. Also too easily excited by "positive posts" while at the same time too
easily vexed by the "negative ones" to realize what they have in front of them until it's gone.
There are no "sure things" but some are closer than others. Many of the most successful
investors wear "blinders", earplugs, whatever it takes to remove themselves from the daily
grind of pessimism and the weekly/monthly grind of volatile stock swings as they go by their
instincts.
Study any of the most successful stocks over the last 3 years and chart what was being said
about them "then" and how investors were reacting to those words "then" and compare that to
where they are "now." and you will see some startling contrasts. A perfect example is AOL.
(Yes, we all realize that the Internet sector has been sagging as of late, but regardless of that,
an invest-investment in AOL 2-3 years ago would still be worth major bucks today after 6 stock
splits.) Look at the history of AOL's last 3 years and you will be amazed at the moments of
pessimism and stock downturns.
Most of the daily followers of AOL that bought in 3 years ago were scared out 1 to 2 years ago.
It sounds hard to believe but there were many times that you could have read AOL's obituary. I
know, because before I started investing in the stock market, I said to myself wow, it was (is)
so easy to make money - everybody should be rich but they're not. - Why? -
So I went back and read every article in "The Street.Com's" archives and looked up countless
prior news and commentaries on AOL at various news sites to understand and help me gain
the "confidence to relax." The answer is that throughout any company's path to success there
are many moments of anxiety, moments of doubt, moments requiring great patience and
moment's that invoke.
"Murphy's 3rd Corollary of Stock Investing" which states: "All stocks experience downturns just
long enough to induce you to sell on the morning of the day that it rebounds." And also.
"Murphy's-phy's 2nd Postulate of psychological Market Parameters" (commonly referred to as
M2PPMP) which indicates that: "For every piece of good news that invokes you to buy there
will be two pieces of follow-up commentary that will convince you to sell too soon." So who
made out the best in AOL (even with its currently depressed price?) Certainly not the M2PPMP
crowd, but the investors that wore their blinders. I'm content to put my blinders on.
But alas, in the end, every-one has to make their own decision based upon their own lives. But
if a few weeks or a few downturns is all that it takes to scare you out of what may potentially be
the Stock that will change your life then so be it, fall victim to M2PPMP and be content in the
fact that you can still live vicariously through the rest of us willing to go the distance and reap
the rewards |
