SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Brad Rogers who wrote (2152)3/6/1997 10:53:00 AM
From: John Howell   of 13594
 
Brad,

You may well be correct about AOL going to 50 - 60 this year. However, I must disagree with your statement that fundamentals are improving. First, it's hard to even attempt FA with AOL because of the lack of real data coming out of Dulles. The fact that AOL either spins or smokescreens every statistic makes it difficult to come to a fundamental understanding of their business picture.

For example, AOL has publicly stated that they see ad revenue from chatrooms being worth 500M a year. This equals the entire amount that market analysts say will be spent on web advertising for the entire year. However, when AOL makes this claim very few people question it, especially when it makes the stock go higher.

Bad earnings coming? No problem. Just get the MM's to say that next quarter will be the quarter that AOL finally turns a profit, and the stock goes higher.

How about AOL's claim of 10 million users by June? It is going to be very hard to convince the attorneys general a second time that they didn't anticipate the need for 800,000 to 1,000,000 modems when they have publicly anticipated this subscriber level.

I think you get my point. Right now, AOL is nothing more than a throw of the dice. They may indeed make massive profits at some point in the future (although I doubt it), but at this point there is nothing about their balance sheet or their business model that makes them a fundamentally good play.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News