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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (22065)5/17/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella   of 42771
 
Couldn't agree more

" The myth that Schmidt materially improved Novell product strategy isn't true, his strategy is basically the same as that of Frankenberg's, if there are some differences, they aren't significant. Schmidt hasn't solved the main problem novell had and still has "MARKETING". Yes, I agree with Toy and others that their products are superior and the new products are impressive (Bordermanager, NDS on NT, Zen, ..etc.), but without strong marketing they are not growing. The fact remains they are selling products in a market which grows at about 30% annually (my estimate) and they can't grow their revenues. It is clear to me that they are losing market share at a hefty clip, or maybe someone has an explanation for stagnant (or declining) revenues with all these fantastic new products."

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Here's where I think we all missed the boat that Joe Antol got on. No amount of marketing, good products, or execution can substitute for a strategy of dealing with MSFT, the monopoly, as it tightens its grip on your market. Its Kill or Be Killed. (A reference to a WWII training film) A company like IBM --- broadly diversified --- can fight back by emphasizing some other set of products. Novell however with a narrow NOS focus is doomed.

The battle was over before most of us even invested in this company. Back in Frankenberg's day there was a chance for them to be bought out. Now Novell's chances are to hold onto some niche and downsize into it. You simply cannot fight a monopoly with good products or intentions or nostalgia for past glory.

We have all seen what those OEM contracts Microsoft signs smell like. I wonder what the contracts they sign with major corporations look like! Buy Novell and we cut off your support---as they threatened with NDS for NT?

I don't think Schmidt has come up with any strategy to deal with this situation and in that sense he is no different from his immediate predecessors.

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