The $64K question! If it were me, I'd divide the timing into two periods next week: before Tuesday's high-tech conference (where it looks like analysts will hear from a number of high-tech CEOs, and if they like what they hear they will issue re-assuring comments that would help increase prices). Or, after results from the Tuesday conference.
Before Tuesday's conference results get out, I'm suspecting we will see a bit more price erosion, primarily cause Friday's closing action was negative. (It's my viewpoint that the last hour of trading is more dominated by professional traders than the amateurs as the pros tend to take the opposite side of the amateurs or retail investors.) If Monday's first 30-60-minute action is also negative and then Tuesday's opening is also negative, you might find a good entry point sometime Tuesday. This is because I can't imagine the CEO's saying anything at the high-tech conference that wouldn't be interpreted as bullish. (Just my opinion -- strong openings seem to be dominated by retail investors cause they come home the previous night, look at the market, like the action on a stock and place overnight orders to buy 'at market', and up the price goes. Then about 30-35 minutes after opening, the pros burst in with opposite actions -- look at intra-day charts on CSCO and notice price action within the first hour and within the last hour).
As for price support level, my OmniTrader program shows short-term support at $92. Because it looks like you use 50 and 200-day moving averages, you might want to look at one of my favorite on-line charting sites: tscn.com
It's from TeleScan, the data provider I use. You can choose various indicators on the CSCO chart, and see which one or ones gives various rates of return. For example, the 50-day exponential moving average for the last 6 months of CSCO shows a return of 65% in 4 trades if only the 50-day was used to enter and exit trades. |
