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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Bart who wrote (223)6/27/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum   of 19219
 
Bart, i have to comment on your remark regarding stocks following earnings: earnings, imo don't matter all that much; interest rates are by far the more important factor in determining the overall stock market's direction. there have been periods when earnings were lousy and the stock market soared and vice versa. in a situation like the current one the market often manages to focus on the improving earnings picture for a while and holds up, or even rallies in spite of rising rates. but ultimately rates *always* win out. the most glaring example of this is 1987, where earnings helped the market to rise to record highs in spite of rising rates, and the outcome is well-known. '87 may look like a blip on a long term chart, but imagine what a similar percentage decline would mean to the market today. a few thousand Dow points could be lost in a few weeks if a panic grips the market. this is not to say that this will definitely happen, just that the possibility exists.

regards,

hb
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