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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Brian K Crawford who wrote (2287)3/8/1997 8:42:00 PM
From: chenys   of 13594
 
You have to look at AOL as a social phenomenon, not a business.

Marketing is like courting, in which you show your strength as much as you can to attract attention. But if courting leads to a marriage, you have to deliver your promise at some point, just like anything else. Naked truth, nowhere to hide. Therefore, a mother of all marketing should know her limit and know where to stop and be realistic.

AOL is a wild woman (or crazy man) of all marketing, not a mother of all marketing. Kamikaze marketing.

On-line or internet providers are like the memory chips in semiconductor industry, they are selling commodity goods, they are selling services. Like hotels, restuarants.

Long ago when analysts were saying Netscape would be the MSFT of internet and hyping up its stock, you know this was someone not knowing the technology that was talking. Now, they are saying AOL is like cable. Is she really? can she be?

You are talking about a brute force labor intensive service business here. In TV you get all audience's attention through its rich fast moving content. TV ads are thus effective, things get caught on imediately. Internet ads are, contrarily, passive and not as eye-catching, limited by the data transmission speed. Their effectiveness wouldn't be able to compete with TV or cable. Unless you can transmit data like cable signals. If this picture is clear, then future discussion about AOL would become more meaningful. Otherwise, it would be just one opinion against another.

Pittman has said he was not a businessman, but a sociologist. Therefore, you have to look at AOL as a social phenomenon, not a business.
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