I think we are just about at equilibrium right now. Pumping as fast as we can, and refining at the max.
I can see refining becoming a bottleneck, especially, since when you run full tilt boogie, you tend to break down.
But, can we ever pump significantly faster than we are? I don't think so.
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The Countdown for the Peak of Oil Production has Begun – but what are the Views of the Most Important International Energy Agencies
In a lengthy article appearing in the Energy Bulletin, W. Zittel, Et Al, discredit the forecasts by USGS, EIA and IEA in what may be the final blow to these peak oil optimists -- "those who believe that rising prices will induce a fast increase of oil exploration and production." The article gives a well thought out critique of the optimists forecasts. For those of you who are new to the subject of peak oil it is worth reading.
The authors do not conclude a certain date at which peak oil will occur or has occurred, but rather indicate that it is a mute point whether production has peaked or that it is barely keeping up with demand.
The only glimmer of hope that I see for more oil is, that as oil prices continue to escalate, the quantity of heavy oil from Venezuela, tar sands oil from Canada and shale oil from the U.S. might start to make a slight dent in the rate of decline petroleum oil. I hope so, because the means of mitigation of the decline are not in place and we could easily face a "great depression"{ "
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