TOBI was overshipped long ago. Stock was inflated. I have been short on paper since 57. Last year, when the stock was trading at 40, TOBI was approved and all the analysts could say is that it was already priced in. I rode that from 39 to 26 last year while BB/RS was calling it a buy. Shipments will pick up for TOBI in time. Probably Mid summer as inventory levels are reduced. Meanwhile they have just received clearance to sell it in Canada and Argentina. But I beleive the market for TOBI has been overestimated, and overhyped. Sales will not be as big as they were pumped up to be. In April when the stock was trading at 40. BB RS upgraded it to a buy, all the way down to 20, where it was picked up by SSB and rated outperform. It has been all hype since then and had a nice smooth little ride back to 60, and then tanked back to 34, as I beleive it was unloaded in favorable conditions. Not much support these days, which is why it has been hammered so hard, so quickly. I wonder how many are short right now?? Ehhh?? Should be a nice bounce but I wonder from where?? I would pay 1x sales at most until it's figured out what the true sales for TOBI are. They might sell the heck out of it in Canada. I think they might have proven it's a 40-45 million dollar a year drug around here. That's just my take on it though. I can already hear the analysts pounding the table, or not...
fnews.yahoo.com
Read between the lines real closely. That very same day, an analyst came out and was pretty much underwhelmed about the whole thing and when asked why the price didn't move up much (which was about 2 points to around 42 or so,) he replied by saying that it looked like it was all pretty much priced in to the stock at that point. I do not have a link to that, but I remember reading it, and shorted the stock on that 2 days later. Wonder if the analysts are still projecting earnings of $3-4 per share. (hahaha) It has taken them nearly a year to get approval in Canada. The 2 new markets should help, but...
This post is solely the opinion of me, myself, and I. Do not rely on it. |
