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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: TimF who wrote (232737)5/14/2005 4:12:45 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1574542
 
What is curious about the Iraqi tactic is that it appears aimed at creating active opposition. The insurgency is powered by Sunnis; the civilians they have killed have been overwhelmingly Shiites and Kurds. The goal appears to be to split apart the fragile governing coalition and foment sectarian strife.

Yet if the insurgents achieve all-out civil conflict, the likely losers are the Sunnis themselves, since they are a minority. Having governed for decades in Iraq, Sunnis are accustomed to the whip hand and may simply assume they will be able to regain control. Or perhaps they are betting that chaos will lead to partition, allowing Sunnis to govern themselves.

The article is a fairly good one but IMO its over thinking things. The Sunni insurgents are holding their own because the Shia and Kurds are not fighting back very hard. If they did as a unified front, the Sunnis would be hard pressed to maintain their current status quo. However, if they can break the fragile bond between the Shia and the Kurds and provoke a real civil war, they have a good chance of winning. Why? Because the Sunnis appear to be the real warriors/fighters of Iraq, not the Shia or the Kurds......apparently, its what suits them.

ted
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