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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 335.42+0.4%Oct 31 5:00 PM EST
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)3/18/2003 7:28:30 PM
From: Dave Shares  Read Replies (1) of 10065
 
I do not post to this thread and have not posted more than a couple of times in the past several years, but I have respect for Mr. Brinker and what he has done for his followers who are investors.

The importance of Mr. Brinker's January, 2000 call was that it was a wake up call to investors to move to the sidelines. The October QQQ call was a trade recommendation and I think if Mr. Brinker had it to do over again, he would not have made a trade recommendation to his followers who are investors.

Note that his January call was early by two months, and came before a blow off top of great magnitude. I remember the posts back then about how wrong he was in light of the gains in early 2000. I don't think that the investors back then who got out feel badly about missing the top in light of the overall savings from the carnage that followed.

Similarly, given what others observe, this call could be early as well and could precede a sharper drop below the lows yet seen, maybe not. The point simply being, and I think the point has been made, it does not happen without some time and preferably some more demonstrable capitulation.

I agree that re-entering on weakness is much smarter, and I would be inclined to think that phasing entry over the next few months would also be prudent; during the bull market, Mr. Brinker always spoke about dollar cost averaging. I am not sure that one should invest differently now, albeit this is money that may not stay in the market for more than a year or two or three.
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