H&Q Conference, January Effect, Etc. Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : H&Q Conference, January Effect, Etc.

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To: James Corpening who wrote (230)	1/28/1997 3:59:00 AM
From: Kevin OBrien	of 246

My valuation formula is based on solid fundamentals and it grew out of a screening technique I developed over 25 years ago for regular investment grade shares while I was up in the Islands. I was able to determine the market price to the cent for a period of about 15 years for NZ and Australia but with the freeing up in 1984 to now what is one of the least regulated fiancial markets worldwide it is in need of revision. The work is still valid and I was able to predict the required split for INTC from it. A 3/2 was required to balance my equations. The 2/1 results in a further dilution of earnings/share with the effect that shares will not rise as high. This is a management strategy. I have not done any work in that area to be able to confidently predict any management prefence. Splits are necessary for the high caps as a defensive measure because if the shares are undervalued at the fiscal year end they become a potential raiders target. It seems that with the high caps that there is often not sufficient liquidity in the market to enable shares to obtain their full pricing. Unfortunately I cannot give much more without disclosing too much. My present intention is to re-validate my work for the US market and possibly others depending on time. Ultimately it will be for sale. I will publish my predictions quite boldly meanwhile as there is no better way of establishing creditability. I welcome pointers to shares to look at. At present I am actively loking for sources of data - particularly free ones availble on the net. I would love to find a list of a 1000 or more shares with information giving - Market price/share ) or PE Earnings last FY ) No of common on issue shareholder's equity or net tangible assets/share $dividends/share of common Sector classification 5 year dividend history Kevin O'Brien Wainuiomata NZ kob@pchelp.gen.nz

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