James,
I think both you and Frank make good arguments for a market (and CSCO) decline. To be honest, I've been expecting it for some time. It's hard to know what to think when what seems logical ("the market [and Cisco] is overvalued and probably will come down") fails to materialize in a significant fashion, or at all.
That said, I think that many investors/traders may look at Cisco and say, "hmmm, pretty pricey, but it did go to 117$, and Cisco always makes new highs." Obviously this isn't the most iron-clad reasoning, but you note how powerful sentiment seems to be (is).
My sense is that Cisco will stay in this range until the next earnings release. It may drift down to @ $90, and it may inflate up to @120 (I know, that's a pretty big range for a normal stock), but, like you say, it won't matter much in a few years time.
I will say this without reservation: I've not been too successful at guessing the short-term moods of WS, and have resigned myself to a holding pattern. This has been very successful for me!
I'm curious, you say you wouldn't buy at these prices; are you holding any CSCO?
Chris |
