Jeff: I too hate the MU dive. I do have a loss in that one, but I
think that a PE of 7 they can still come back strong - not world-
beating, but strong. In about 1976 I worked on a system that we
designed for a Wilson Foods packing plant. We called it the Hog
Machine" because it was a computerized hog weighing system that
featured voice entry from a worker who would take some measurements
on the hog while it was on the scale. Wearing a headset mike left
both hands free. We used a DEC PDP-11 and a $15,000 voice recognition
module with only a few-hundred word vocabulary. We sold several of
those - they loved it and it was cost-effective for them.
Speech recognition has gotten much better, but I don't think there
ia a "magic bullet" that will turn your average Pentium into a voice-
typewriter. I think that massive computing power and lots of memory
will be required, along with years of creative software development,
before the average proof-reader needs to look for another job.
Of course the 256MB ram chips are on the way and perhaps 1GB as well.
Every time I read that we have reached the limit of optical
lithography some subtile improvements are made and the limit goes
down. 0.15 micron seems to be the low attainable figure now, but don't
bet on it. Commodity priced 1GB chips might make voice recognition
products a household staple.
Computing power is perhaps easier - a few parallel 200+ MHz RISC chips
in parallel. But we now have parallel machines, but the software is
way behind the hardware potential.
I also have GE stock and a few mutual funds. I have known GE for many
years as I competed with them in the ship automation business for
about 15 years. It was a David & Goliath thing. I certainly learned
to respect them. GE has given me a return of perhaps 16 percent per
year for quite a few years (including dividends, but not re-investing)
- and no surprises.
You might want to check Dallas Semiconductor (DS on nyse). Stable
company with great products. ONLY growing 20-25 percent per year, low
PE, and lower volitity than the herd.
Bill |
