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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who wrote (243187)3/23/2008 1:06:15 AM
From: Nadine Carroll   of 794104
 
Obama is 90 percent likely to be the Democratic nominee, although the press seem to have continuing trouble with basic arithmetic and thereby doubt this. It's important to note that many of the superdelegates are DNC members which means many are not unfeeling calculators of general election odds who are likely to switch in a second but instead real live ideological activists. That helps Obama even more. HRC will be out in early May, after losing North Carolina.


This is starting to resemble the perennial Wall Street argument between fundamental and technical analysis. It's the numbers, stupid! To this I can only reply with the entirely unoriginal observation that if fundamentals usually win in the end (cf. Warren Buffet), psychology can rule the day for unexpectedly long periods of time (cf. Nasdaq bubble). Or, as the shorts like to put it, markets can stay stupid longer than you can stay solvent.

The 2008 election cycle has a short-term horizon.
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