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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's
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To: Jeff who started this subject1/15/2003 11:54:19 PM
From: Softechie  Read Replies (1) of 30712
 
8:30am ET Initial Claims

Highlights

Initial claims -19K to 389K in the week of Jan 4.
Continued claims rose 35K to 3.445 mln in week of Dec 28.
Those on extended benefits fell to 734K in the week of Dec 21.

Key Factors

Wild volatility steals credibility from the weekly measure -- 36K average move over last 5 weeks, 23K since mid-Sep.
Far less volatility in continued claims after the wild bounce centered on the late Thanksgiving Day timing.
Faulty seasonal adjustments, the late Thanksgiving holiday and now year-end influences provide some swing.
Initial claims 4 week average of 406K expected to return to sub-400K next week Continued 4wk avg at 3.451 mln.
Benefits extension expired Dec 28 and reestablished Jan 7. No interruption for the 3/4 mln recipients.

Big Picture

The labor market remains in transition as wild volatility in the claims data leave its current read suspect. Questions surrounding the claims data include the holiday-related volatility, the faulty seasonal adjustment given the post 9/11 surge in layoffs a year ago, the lack of hiring evident in the stable continued claims, the embedded decline in continued claims as recipients push through the allowable limit. The broader labor measure of payroll growth provides a far clearer view of the entire labor market -- firing and hiring. Bottom line is that profit-led business cost-cutting continues as high productivity growth and weak economic growth leaves little hiring as layoffs soften. Unemployment should continue higher as job-hunters return to the hunt and are met with few offers.
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