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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: LordDarley who wrote (2444)3/17/1997 7:21:00 PM
From: jack rand   of 13594
 
>If AOL phone is part of 4.0, one can only imagine the potential
>and the possibilities for additional revenue beginning later this
>year. Imagine .02 a minute worldwide calling to fellow AOL members;

Where oh where has anything been said by AOL about charging?
And it sure would be confusing to at the same time begin promoting
Tel-Save long distance and Net phone.

Imputing what isn't there has been hallmark of bullish opinion
about AOL, which has been imagining the potential and possibilities
since 1992. It's easy to make a case for any stock by such musings.

Another hallmark has been egregious selectivity of information,
consciously or otherwise. A major theme of the Barron's piece
is "Internauts are now concerned about how to attract more consumers
to the 'Net at a time when the growth in home PC sales has been
decelerating."

IMO, AOL and Internet bulls are in major disconnet or denial
regarding the huge slowing of growth of the installed base of
home PCs from which most new consumer subs derive. In addition,
notion that AOL still has 8m members is a fiction. The overload
problem combined with slowdown of marketing surely has taken
big toll. In the six quarters prior to the December one, churn
averaged 25% PER QUARTER (including trial subs). That was with
no overload problem and marketing on full blast to replace the
lost subs.

When AOL's sub count and near term prospects for its growth become
in-your-face, look out.............

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