Nathan, let me start off by explaining that I have no position in Isis
either long or short nor will I ever. My focus as it relates to biotechs
over the coming year centers solely around ImmuLogic, Amylin, and
Gilead Sciences! However, I do believe that there are two sides to
every story and my post regarding Isis was just to let all shareholders
and potential shareholders to know the risks with Isis! I think people
got caught up with the article in "Worth" and consider it to be a lock!
On the plus side I do agree with you that they have a stacked pipeline,
a good cash pile, good partners, and other technologies other than
antisense like their combinatorial drug discovery process that reduce
the long-term risks! If your focus is on the long term then you may not
have anything to worry about! However, if your focus is solely on the
short-term as investors are a lot of the time (myself included),
then there might be trouble! Isis lowered the dosage of Formivirsen
because there was relevant toxicity in a few patients in their Phase
III trial (read page 6 of the '95 report) not on the fact that they thought
they could get equal benefit for patients with a lower dosage! As far
as the marketing agreements, of course Isis is going to say they
wanted the drug back; it kind of covers up what's really going on
underneath! I believe Eisai walked because they saw how effective
Gilead Sciences' Vistide drug is, were concerned with Formivirsen's
toxicity, and realized that even if the drug reaches the market in a
year it will be competing at a handicap to Gilead! Anyways, those
are my opinions (due in large part to Sturza); I hope I am wrong and
you are successful with Isis; just wanted to let you know what some
people who really know their biotech are saying!!
Good luck,
Michael Collins |
