Mary Beth, believe it or not, nothing yet to get overly exhuberant about from a TA standpoint. Some of the indicators are starting to turn somewhat bullish, but they are doing so so very slowly. This "slowness" in itself is a good sign -- the longer and more gradual in many cases, the better for the long term in general.
For you and others who are interested, let me see if I can highlight some of the indicators from today's activity. On Balance Volume has just crossed above it's 30-day weighted moving average: for the first time since 11/6. This is bullish. Slow stochastics (14-day) can still have some upward travel, which indicates at least no major imminent decline in price -- this is bullish.
Momentum, which compares the percentage difference between today's close and the close 9 days ago peaked yesterday and is now flattening out. This is neutral to slightly bearish. The good news here, though, is that momentum crossed above its 30 day moving average back on 3/28 and still remains substantially above this crossing point - overall bullish. One final bullish note is that MACD, (moving average convergence/divergence) indicated a buy back on 3/26, but it was so wimpy then, I didn't pay much attention to it -- another overall bullish sign.
On the bearish side, no strong accumulation yet by the "big boys, or rather (to be "politically correct": the big "people" - tee hee). Further indicating no strong accumulation yet is the negative volume indicator which is still below its 30 day weighted and exponential lines.
Whatz all diss mene? Scenario 1: In the absence of any news AXC may very well decline tomorrow to about 6 or so. Scenario 2: AXC may rise and close as high as 6-1/2 (which would be nice). My bet is that Scenario 1 will play out - volume will be important to watch -- if it's less on a decline, that's, of course bullish. If Scenario 2 happens on higher volume, it could be merlot or cabernet this weekend (at least one wineglass full).
The best part of today's 0.5 point movement is that we've broken out of this 5-3/4 to 6-1/8 range, at least intraday - all on decent, but not blazing volume. Until yesterday, it was strongly possible that AXC could have declined below it's support level of 5-3/4 since the pattern was a kind of "declining triangle."
Anyway, I vote for trading for a while in the 6 - 6-1/2 range and a slow move upwards w/o any real market tanking or bad news.
Art, Hugh, please "calibrate" my opinion if you're inclined -- always open to constructive criticism and comment.
Hope this helps...best regards,
Ron |
