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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: rushnomore who wrote (25271)5/24/2000 11:53:00 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh   of 54805
 
So I don't think that this holding vs. trading argument can be solved by just multiplying decision probabilities.

Not as simple as multiplying decision probabilities, but there is certainly a valid point here. The LTB&H investor makes very few decisions and has the time to research them extensively. Moreover, he or she only has to be right about the trend over a long period of time, not the trend over short periods of time, which is clearly a much less predictable realm. The trader not only has to make lots of decisions with far less time to research, but has to be right about short term movements, so the probability of error is much higher.
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