The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

VTI 335.42

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Oct 31 5:00 PM EST

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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)	6/5/2003 3:04:39 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) of 10065

Wally, I see even the 4 week moving average which Bob uses is also sitting at 71.60. If we assume his overall sentiment indicator is negative, I think the money supply and economic parts of the model are likely still positive. Valuation may be neutral to high. I suspect the model is still clearly bullish. Anyway I'll shut up about the model for now as the newsletter should be out in a couple of days IMO It's very hard to get negative on stocks when we're in the extraordinary situation of short term bonds and money markets paying real returns of close to nothing and at the same time the Fed has all but pronounced it will do whatever it takes to pre-emptively fight the possibility of deflation even at the cost of some inflation. On top of that we have some fiscal stimulus. It seems valuations should expand as they are doing and further improvement in corporate profits cannot be far away. It will be interesting to see how high bullish sentiment will get before this presumed cyclical bull ends. It gets pretty dicey if we assume we're under the headwind of a secular bear. Marc

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