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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: bentway who wrote (258262)7/2/2010 9:21:32 PM
From: koanRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
>>I want to be in gold when it goes straight up. All we need are more job losses, currency degradation and malaise - then, have some seminal event happen..<<

I agree and keep live gold stock options. The siminal event could be the bombing of Iran and oil going to $200.

Absent that, my guess as to the scenario: The four big players are the US, Europe, China and India. The US and Europe are broke and face deflation while China and India have inflation problems.

They screwed up the real estate problem, IMO, and the stimulus package. Both Stiglits and Krugman told Obama it was too small and they would not b able ot go back for more; and both said they should have run the money through the mortgage market and home owners and then to the banks.

So now, we face a downturn which could turn into a deflationary spiral (people just quit spending and start saving), which they will try to stop by printing money. They will not risk deflation. They did that in 1937 and it was a disaster.

or as you say a siminal even could do it.$200 oil would sure put the world into a deep depression and inflation.

Stagflation.

I always thought we would end up with stagflation anyway.

LIke after LBJ's guns and butter trip. Except this time there will be no Volker raisng prime to 18% to stop it.
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