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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 55.15

+2.5%

Jan 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: sim1 who wrote (25910)	2/20/2008 12:15:50 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

OT - earthquakes and Bay Area It's good to look at this from a statistical risk perspective. The "worst case" event is a repeat of the 1906 event, which the USGS site gives as a slightly less than 5% chance in the next 30 years. They estimate this would cause around 6,000 deaths if it occurred at the worst time of day: A repeat of the 1906 magnitude 7.9 earthquake, the worst case scenario for the Bay Area, is estimated to result in about 5800 fatalities if it strikes during working hours. This estimate is comparable to the approximately 6000 deaths caused by the 1995 M6.9 Kobe earthquake that occurred in the afternoon directly beneath an urban area with a population of 1.52 million people. Most scenarios, however, have maximum projected fatalities on the order of several hundred, reflecting the success of earthquake-resistant design and construction practices in California, particularly in residences. earthquake.usgs.gov So that's an expected 200/deaths per year event (actually less because this was a worst-case assumption). By way of contrast, road deaths in all of California each year are a bit over 4,000. So the chance of dying in any one year from this worst case earthquake is about the same as of dying in a crash (assuming the Bay Area is about 5% of California in terms of driving deaths). From a practical perspective, it is very important to realize that there are very wide local variations in earthquake damage because of different soil conditions. For example the financial district is bad because it's built on landfill and also because it is vulnerable to quakes on either side of the Bay. Here's a map of shaking conditions - you can pick location and event: gis.abag.ca.gov Peter

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