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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu
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To: lindalib who wrote (2584)10/11/2005 7:08:49 PM
From: Maurice Winn   of 4232
 
<The current avian flu has not mutated to pass from human to human. Once that mutation occurs, mortality rate will drop-probably on par w/1918.>

Not necessarily. There's no law of viruses that says we need to get the lucky-for-us mutations. They can retain their killing power. It's only after they've been through us at least once that humans might find some immunity.

Must mutations/recombinations/reassortments will reduce the mortality because at 70% mortality, it can't get a lot worse, so most mutations will be in the more benign direction, if you can say a 30% mortality rate is benign. But if we get a regular flu virulence with H5N1 mortality and Tamiflu is out of stock and there's no vaccine, then we are heading for a huge catastrophe.

Unfortunately, although people in the rich countries have a sense of entitlement these days, we are just flesh and blood to bugs. All just grist for the mill.

Mqurice
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