Art:
RE: Interest rates
Interest rates are at historical lows. If anyone is thinking about buying any stock, they should adjust any model to incorporate higher rates and make a determination. The main issue with valuation and interest rates is when interest rates "hit" a reasonable, normalized level. Then it becomes a crap shoot regarding where interest rates go.
RE: DRAMification
DRAM is a commodity and I agree with you that being the "low cost producer" is the correct strategy to choose. I believe that the "problem" with your logic is that DRAM manufacturers, too, have patents on both the process of fabing DRAM and their design.
RE: MLC and "others" Fabrication problems
While other manufacturers may have had problems fabbing MLC units, this is a learning process. Since many entering are skilled semiconductor fabricators, this advantage that SNDK possesses is not sustainable. Others, too, will learn.
The differences in performance are due to the controller.
RE: Guidance
The issue of updating "guidance" is based upon a "materiality" test. If a company is going to miss expectations by a penny, they don't have to update "guidance" since it really is not a "material" event. On the other hand, if they are going to miss by 50%, they will be sued anyway for issuing their prior guidance. Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't.
RE: SNDK scenario
Disagree for the points above. Whether they make or miss their targets, MGMT is under no obligation to "update" guidance. |
