Hi JC,
My first real interest in gold occurred when I found that the BoE were selling it. I bought close to the lows that way. However, with the facts now emerging as they are, the political implications (for this country alone) are huge. Gordon Brown (Finance minister) will have been shown to be something I always accused him of... clueless.
The other point is, I think a lot of the games played in the past will be the subject of much public interest.
It's my guess that gold will be whacked down early January to enable short positions to exit. It's just a guess, and it would take some media manipulation to do that I think.
I'm just using the NEM chart to keep a general eye on things. It looks good for a correction (if that whats happening next). Although I'm heavily weighted in miners, I am not trading in and out of them as it would cost me too much and I'll probably miss a good part of the move.
stockcharts.com
Here is an earlier prediction of the general USA equity market. It's turning about about right, and the set up for for gold miners to dip seems about right to me.
Message 18311495
Here is a story from the Guardian today on the Barrick situation. I originally saw it in the times, but they have alls sorts of pop up windows and stuff at their site these days.
guardian.co.uk
/EDIT "But it claims to have done so to prevent dramatic price swings" -LOL-
-----------------------------------------------------------
Bank 'fixed gold price for years'
JP Morgan accused of manipulation
David Teather, New York
Friday December 20, 2002
The Guardian
JP Morgan Chase has been named in a $2bn (£1.3bn) lawsuit alleging that the Wall Street bank conspired to manipulate the price of gold.
The action
against JP Morgan and Canadian mining group Barrick Gold has been filed by Blanchard and Co, the biggest retailer of the precious metal in the US.
It alleges they dumped gold on to the market for years in order to suppress the price and allow them to reap billions in short-selling profits. New Orleans-based Blanchard is seeking restitution of the money for clients who buy its bullion and gold coins.
It also alleges that, by keeping the price of gold low, Barrick, the second largest gold producer in the world, could buy other mining companies.
The gold price, $350 an ounce, is at its highest for six years as nervousness about stock markets has sent investors looking for a safe harbour. But Blanchard chief executive Donald Doyle claims it would be higher without the alleged manipulation.
"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick and JP Morgan began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 if it had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand."
The lawsuit alleges that in the past five years JP Morgan and Barrick injected millions of additional ounces of gold into the market, several times more than the annual production of every goldmine in South Africa, the world's largest producer.
The suit also claims that, by using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing additional billions of dollars worth of physical gold with off balance sheet accounting, Barrick made it almost impossible to determine the size and impact of its trading position.
Barrick dismissed the claims as "ludicrous and totally without merit". It said the suit "contains numerous factual inaccuracies and defamatory statements", adding that it would vigorously defend itself.
The company is heavily involved in hedging its gold production - often selling a substantial portion before it is mined in a series of forward contracts to ensure it gets a certain price. It has also borrowed gold from bullion banks, including JP Morgan, to sell into the spot market and drive the price down.
But it claims to have done so to prevent dramatic price swings.
Other producers, such as Vancouver's Placer Dome and Newmont Mining, undertake similar hedging but critics have long cast a cynical eye over the activity.
JP Morgan declined to comment.
Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers yesterday both posted higher fourth-quarter earnings, after higher revenues from bond trading and tighter cost controls. But Morgan Stanley reported a 16% fall in profits as trading revenues dropped. All three investment banks have cut jobs and slashed bonuses as they wrestle with the downturn.
Goldman reported fourth quarter profits of $505m, up 1.6% as cost cutting offset a 16% decline in revenues. Lehman's earnings, at $243m, up from $130m a year earlier, were the first improvement since the second quarter of 2001
----------------------------------------------------------- |
